Analysts Warn of Potential Peak in Gold’s Rally Amid Unusual Speed and Retail Interest

Gold's meteoric rally since October 2022—up roughly 150%—shows signs of exhaustion despite its shorter duration compared to historical bull markets. Bank of America notes past Gold rallies averaged 293% gains over 43 months, while the current surge has compressed similar momentum into just 36 months. The Fed's loose policy, dollar weakness, and debasement trade demand fueled the ascent, but overheating concerns grow.

"My brother-in-law asked whether to buy physical gold or silver—his wine investments are tanking," said Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, highlighting retail frenzy. Gold ETFs logged nine straight weekly inflows, though the latest $2.1 billion marked the smallest in three weeks. Deutsche Bank's Michael Hsieh sees technical indicators hinting at a near-term peak, suggesting a neutral phase akin to June-August 2023 rather than a sharp correction.